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Keys to Victory: A Formula for Beating the Titans

Written by Cody Strahm on .

If you would have told me earlier in the week that Chad Pennington was about take over this offense once again, I would have probably called you crazy. Nevertheless, here we are- less than 15 hours away from CP10's first start since September of last year. There was a lot of shock and disbelief among Dolphins fans when the news initially hit the airwaves and because this compromises the future of this franchise, I have sided with those fans that disagree with the decision.

I have to say, though, as we inch closer and closer to gametime, I am starting to become more and more confident about this team's chances with a smart, resilent leader like Pennington under center. But I guess tommorow will tell all in what could end up being a do or die game for this football team. Here are my three keys to a big Dolphins' win.

Contain Chris Johnson
After thinking about what this Dolphins' defense struggled with in the first-half of the season, I'm getting a little more concerned about what Chris Johnson is capable of doing tomorrow.

The Dolphins inability to set the edge was exposed pretty heavily early on in the season, and even though they have made monumental strides in doing so as of late, they haven't exactly faced a back with world class speed like Chris Johnson. That means everything needs to happen quicker for Miami's front seven.

But they better be careful, though. Like I said yesterday, when you put so much effort into containing the perimeter of the defense, you leave yourself vulnerable to cutback lanes for the back, especially when that back is Chris Johnson. Opposing running backs have found leaks in the defense by cutting it back up the middle because the Dolphins tend to over pursue at times.

One thing that could eliminate the dilemma all together, though, would be some consistent penetration from Miami's front three that would limit Johnson's options.

Be productive on first and second down
The biggest downside to starting the physically limited Chad Pennington is that Dolphin drives will essentially be over once this offense hits third and long. If you remember back to 2008, the Dolphins rarely converted many third and longs.

Reason being, Chad just doesn't have the arm strength to fit the football into tight windows when defenses have the luxury of dropping back into coverage. That's why it's going to be crucial for the Dolphins to pick up positive yardage on first and second down to make things manageable for Chad's capabilities on third down.

To do that, the Dolphins are obviously going to have to run the football better. I believe this offensive line is getter better and better each week as they begin to develop some chemistry together, it's just going to take a little bit of commitment from Dan Henning to remain balanced.

Protect the football
If you take a look at this Titans' team from top to bottom, outside of Chris Johnson, they really don't do anything exceptionally well. In fact, they are pretty ordinary, if not borderline bad in the passing game on both sides of the ball. Having said that, this Titans team shares first place with the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC South and surprisingly leads the league in points per game (28).

Their offense isn't prolific by any stretch of the imagination, but they have manufactured points by creating turnovers. The Titans are currently tied for third in the league with 19 forced turnovers, and more importantly, they have done a great job of capitalizing on the opposition's mistakes.

That, once again, brings me to Chad Pennington. The same Chad Pennington that led an offense that set an NFL record in 2008 for the fewest turnovers in a season. I know Sparano probably intends for Pennington to finish out the season as the starter, but on paper anyway, this looks like the perfect game to welcome back ol' #10.

Dolphins vs. Titans: Evaluating the Matchups

Written by Cody Strahm on .

We can sit around and debate this quarterback switch all day, but it's time to get behind Chad Pennington and prep for what is absolutely a must-win for the Dolphins. A loss obviously doesn't end the Dolphins playoff hopes mathematically, but it's going to take at least 10-6 to get into the playoffs, if not 11-5 for a team who has performed poorly in conference and likely won't have the advantage in too many tie-breaking scenarios.

That means a loss would force this Dolphins team to finish the year out 6-1 at the worst, but could mean they would need to run the table in order to sneak into the playoffs. An unlikely feat for a football team who has yet to find an identity on offense, and can't seem to establish any consistency on defense.

So let's attempt to see just how well the Dolphins matchup against the Titans.

Dolphins running game (16th) vs. Titans run defense (14th)
I really don't know who to blame for the Dolphins rushing woes anymore. I've been pointing the finger at the interior offensive line all season, and there's obviously some validity to that, but then again, it's difficult to get anything going when your offensive coordinator decides to abandon the run.

The Dolphins arguably ran the football better than they had all season on that opening drive in Baltimore, but then Dan Henning goes out and decides to only give Ronnie Brown three more carries the rest of the afternoon. I'm still not going to give up on this offense's ability to run the football, I think it's just going to take a commitment from Dan Henning to stay balanced. I'm interested to see if starting Chad Pennington makes things even more difficult on the running game as defenses will be tempted to load up the box because CP10 doesn't have the ability to stretch the field.

One things for sure, the Titans certainly don't have a pushover run defense. They rank a solid 14th in the league against the run, and are conceding a decent 4.1 yards per carry. They're not weak against the run by any means, but surely they can be ran on if the Dolphins decide to feature a heavy dose of Ronnie and Ricky. Of course, I've said that before about similiar defenses this season, though.
Edge: Push

Titans running game (10th) vs. Dolphins run defense (16th)
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins have actually been better than their 16th overall ranking suggest. They are currently only surrendering 3.8 yards per carry, and have done a much better job at setting the edge in recent weeks. Having said that, arguably their biggest test of the season is coming to town on Sunday. I say arguably because your in for a heated debate when discussing who the better back is between Adrian Peterson, who the Dolphins' faced in Week 2, and the Titans' Chris Johnson.

Johnson hasn't had the same knack he had a year ago for breaking off long touchdown runs, but he's still the fastest player in football and is a threat to score everytime he touches the ball, no matter where he is on the field. The Dolphins don't have a particularly fast defense, so they must prevent Johnson from getting into the open-field.

Just like every other week, Cameron Wake, Koa Misi, and Ikaika Alama-Francis must continue to improve on setting the edge, especially against a speedster like Johnson. When the Titans decide to test the perimeter of the defense, the Dolphins also must be extra careful not to over-pursue Johnson to the edge, because he has the ability to cut back on a dime and spring to daylight up the middle.
Edge: Titans

Dolphins passing game (14h) vs. Titans pass defense (23rd)
This is obviously where everything gets real interesting. Although, I, along with many other Dolphins fans, don't agree with this decision to bench Chad Henne so early in his career, I think I speak for everyone when I say I am very intrigued to see how this offense responds to Chad Pennington taking over as the starter.

I have my worries about how much is left in that arm after yet another shoulder surgery, but if Pennington is anywhere remotely close to the same QB that led this team to 11 wins in 2008, he should have a pretty efficient game against the struggling Titans' secondary. They rank in the bottom ten against the pass, but one thing to be weary of is their ability to pressure the quarterback. That's where the most upside to this switch at QB may lie.

For all of Pennington's limitations, he's always excelled in diagnosing the blitz and getting rid of the football quickly, something that has hindered Henne's ability to emerge as a quality starter. But then again, that was two years ago, with an even healthier arm than he has now. I think that's why we should know in a hurry whether or not this was the correct move for this year's Miami Dolphins
Edge: Dolphins

Titans passing game (26th) vs. Dolphins pass defense (12th)
Randy Moss drastically changes what this Titans' passing attack is capable of, but personally, in this stage of their careers, I will take facing Moss rather than Kenny Britt every day of the week. Who knows, we may see a rejuvenated Moss now that he has a change of scenery, but if Vontae Davis can hold him without a catch when Tom Brady was throwing him passes, I'm pretty sure he can hold him check against a banged up Vince Young.

On the other side, I expect Mike Nolan to allow Sean Smith to get some opportunities at covering Nate Washington with no safety help over the top. That way the Dolphins can shade the safety Moss' way if necessary, and primarily focus on stacking up the box to stop Chris Johnson and the Titans dynamic rushing attack. One thing that does worry me about facing the Titans is Vince Young's ability to get outside the pocket. The Dolphins tend to struggle against mobile quarterbacks, so hopefully that ankle injury prevents Young's legs from having an impact on this game.
Edge: Dolphins

Special-teams
Yes, Dan Carpenter missed a crucial fourth quarter field goal against the Ravens last week, but it eventually had to happen. He's bailed this offense out enough. Overall, though, the Dolphins' special-teams aren't making the same game changing mistakes that plagued them early on in the season.

The Titans will bring a pretty solid special-teams unit to town this week, though, led by the boot of Rob Bironas and the dangerous return man Marc Mariani. They don't cover kicks particulary well, however, conceding just over 27 yards per opponent's kick return. So maybe this is finally the week Nolan Carroll breaks off a big return.

I'm also interested to see how the absence of Jason Allen effects the coverage teams. They have been improving just about every week, but Jason Allen has been one of the finer special-teams tacklers this team has had over the past few years.
Edge: Titans

Still Great Seats Available for this Weekend's Game

Written by Cody Strahm on .

It's no secret that the Dolphins are still winless at home this season. Let's help give them an actual home-field advantage this Sunday. If you live in the Miami area get out to the game. There's still great seats available for low prices.

Tickets for Sunday's game vs. the Titans are down 12% this week. Hundreds of seats still available for $20 or less (Game avg: $100). http://tiny.cc/ix5yd

Over 3500 instant delivery eTickets available for Sunday's game, $62 avilable for less than $25. http://tiny.cc/17szy

Dolphins vs. Titans: 5 Questions with the Enemy

Written by Cody Strahm on .

Well, it's been a few weeks since I've had the privilege of exchanging questions with a blogger that represents the team the Dolphins are scheduled to face. The Bloguin Network doesn't currently have a Cincinnati Bengals or a Baltimore Ravens blog, so we had to do without what has become the most informative and interesting read of the week.

Please welcome in Drexel from Total Titans, the best Tennessee Titans blog on the web, to get us back on the right track. Be sure to check out the questions I answered for him regarding the Dolphins over there in the next couple days.

Phins Phocus: What are your feelings about the Titans signing Randy Moss? Do you think he's worth the antics? What kind of impact do you see him having on the offense?

Total Titans: I'm excited about the acquisition of Randy Moss for a few reasons.

First, signing a player of his caliber sends a positive message to the locker-room from the standpoint that team management is willing to do whatever it takes to provide the team with the ingredients to make a deep playoff run.

As for his antics, I'm somewhat confident that Jeff Fisher will do what it takes to prevent the enigmatic Moss from becoming a distraction.

Lastly, Moss's mere presence should provide more running room for Chris Johnson in the running game. Up-and-comer Kenny Britt was doing a great job as of late by playing the same role but unfortunately, he was recently bitten by the injury-bug, so he's out for several weeks. Moss should have no problem picking up where Kenny left off.

Phins Phocus: What are you hearing about Vince Young's ankle injury? Do you feel like the Titans' offense loses much of a step with Kerry Collins under center?

Total Titans: Young's ankle injury is a concern, but I'm expecting him to start against the Dolphins this Sunday. He's playing solid football and with each game, he's becoming more of a complete NFL quarterback rather than being just an athlete who merely plays the position.

Having an established veteran signal-caller such as Collins as the #2 is always a good thing for any franchise. However, even with KC's experience and despite his advancing age, the ability to still chuck the ball downfield, the offense is at its best when Vince Young is under center.

Phins Phocus: Evaluate the Titans' defense through the first-half of the season. Strengths? Weaknesses?

Total Titans: Through the season's halfway mark, the Titans defense has played a tough, physical brand of football that's consistently causing turnovers, taking down opposing quarterbacks and forcing the opposition to constantly keep their heads on a swivel.

Strengths: Creating turnovers, getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks by way of a no-name front four.

Weaknesses: The defense has given up its share of yards in the passing game. Opposing offenses have had levels of success matriculating the ball down the field via the passing attack.

Phins Phocus: By all means, Chris Johnson is having a very productive year. He hasn't dominated like he did a year ago, though. What are defenses doing differently to contain him a bit?

Total Titans: Johnson's still getting his yards, but it's taking more carries this season. Also, what's missing from his game is a drop in long runs.

I'll attribute CJ's "struggles" to a couple of factors. Opposing defenses are using the eight men in the box strategy to prevent CJ from breaking the big one. Of course, with Randy Moss on board, hopefully, this trend will end.

Also, CJ's had a bit more wear and tear this year. He's carrying the ball more, which naturally, is going to make him more susceptible to nagging/lingering injuries which inevitably, is going to hinder his ability a bit to perform at his highest level.

Phins Phocus: Finally, who do you see winning Sunday and why? Final Score?

Total Titans: I think the Titans will come out swinging in Randy Moss's much-anticipated debut. Miami's a tough team that win or loss, will keep things interesting but in the end, I'll take the Titans in a close one.

Titans 20 Dolphins 16

Trying to Make Sense of Sparano's Decision to Bench Henne, Start Pennington

Written by Cody Strahm on .

I think I speak for everyone when I say I didn't see this coming. Not even the majority of irrational, impatient fans were ready to call for Henne's head after his disappointing three pick performance against the Ravens, which could just as easily been blamed on his receivers.

Yes, the offense has been lackluster the past few weeks, especially in the red zone, but it's hard to point the blame squarely on Henne's shoulders. Who would have envisioned the running game, which was this offense's identity a year ago, dropping off the way it has? Dan Henning was far from brilliant last season, but I don't think anyone guessed he would lose his mind the way he has despite finally having adequate weapons to work with.

Then again, Sparano reportedly explained the situation to Henne by saying the offense needed a "spark." That's hard to argue with considering this offense has only scored one touchdown in each of the last three weeks. But is starting Chad Pennington really the answer to the offense's struggles? And if he is, is winning now even worth compromising this franchise's future?

First things first, you can count on Pennington making fewer mistakes and displaying the leadership qualities Henne just doesn't seem to have. When you think about watching both quarterbacks leading the offense, there is a certain trust level there with Pennington and obviously the coaches feel the same way.

Having said that, the ceiling this offense has is now considerably lower. Henne has the arm strength to make any throw in football, which in theory should completely open up the offense when he is able to make sound decisions. With Pennington under center, though, the Dolphins will be playing ball-control offense by eliminating mistakes and shortening games.

If you can limit mistakes on offense and play solid defense, you should be able to compete with most teams. That is the same formula that won the 2008 AFC East championship after all. But with that style of play, comes a limit to how far this team can go. They may be even more capable than they were with Henne to sneak in as a wildcard with a late season playoff push, but it's hard to imagine a Pennington led offense knocking off an elite team unless the defense can somehow emerge as dominate overnight.

And it's Pennington's "noodle arm" that really restricts what he can do as an NFL quarterback. It's just a whole lot easier to play defense when you know the majority of the game is going to be played in a 15-yard box. That extra safety can creep up near the line of scrimmage, making it that much harder to run the football for a struggling ground attack, and corners can feel free to jump out routes, comebacks, and quick slants knowing there isn't much of threat that they will be beat deep.

And it was that way before Pennington had yet another season-ending shoulder injury last year. He looked pretty decent in the preseason, but I don't think we'll know until this Sunday if he's the same quarterback that led this team to 11 wins in 2008. With the same token, though, I'm pretty sure Pennington has never had a target quite as talented as Brandon Marshall to work with either. So there are still plenty of uncertainties about what we're going to get on Sunday.

I have too much respect for Pennington to even comprehend him going out and performing dreadfully. He's just too smart, too much of a competitor not to go out and do what he's always done. The bottom line is, speaking strictly about the short-team, Pennington very well could be this team's best chance at making the playoffs.

But when your dealing with a young, promising team like the Dolphins, the long-term outlook is also a big part of the equation. This isn't a team full of a bunch of veterans who's championship window is on the verge of closing. This is a very young team, who's future is much brighter than their present, in my humble opinion.

Why completely compromise the bright future this team has by possibly ending Henne's hopes of emerging as a franchise quarterback, when he's clearly showed enough potential for that to remain a possibility? The skeptic inside me sees how this could be an incredibly selfish move by Tony Sparano.

Hopefully this isn't the case, but if Sparano is feeling like his job is on the line this season and this is purely a stint to try and salvage the best possible record this year and ultimately lead to him keeping his job, that really isn't looking out for the best interest of this football team. The best interest of this football team would be to help establish a foundation for future success, unless of course Sparano feels like this current Dolphins team has what it takes to win the Super Bowl THIS season with Pennington at the helm.

That would be about the only way this makes sense in my mind. If you feel like your capable of winning a Super Bowl, you have to go all in. Things immediately become almost exclusively about the present.

And while the road to the Super Bowl is as wide open as it's ever been this year, and if the Dolphins can get hot here in the second-half of the season, who knows, they very well could put themselves in the title discussion. But going all in with this Dolphins' team is a pretty big gamble in my opinion considering they are two games back to the Jets and Pats in the division and have already lost to both at home.

Super Bowl caliber teams are at least very good if not great on at least one side of the ball. The Dolphins have all the potential in the world on defense, but they haven't given us any reason to believe they are ready to establish themselves as consistently one of the elite units in the league. Offensively? Well, there is a reason we're in the midst of a heated quarterback controversy in November.

That is the main reason why I'm not behind this quarterback change. I'm going to remain hopeful that Pennington leads this team back to the playoffs, but it's not like Henne wasn't capable of doing the same thing.

Yes, it's been frustrating that the Dolphins can't seem to take the next step as a football team and emerge as one of the league's elite teams, but come on now, the guy lost to the Jets, Patriots, Steelers, and Ravens- arguably the top four teams in the league. And he played winning football in two of those games.

Are the Dolphins really this impatient? Have they ever heard of the term "stay the course." Yesterday this team was headed in a clear direction. A direction that was currently frustrating because of underachievement, but one with hope for the future. Now though, I'm not so sure where this team is headed.

I'm not overly concerned about Sunday, or the rest of the season for that matter, but just the thought of starting the hunt for a franchise quarterback all over again when it seemed Chad Henne was so close on several occasions is just sickening. Maybe he will get another chance with this football team, and maybe he can still be that guy. But something tells me we're going to regret this day when we're stuck in another two to three year developmental stage with another rookie quarterback a year or two from now.