Many were optimistic that this could be the week Channing Crowder returns to the lineup, but a day after visiting a specialist, he was listed as doubtful on the team's injury report with that groin. Once again, the absence of Crowder significantly hurts the run defense, but his lack of coverage and rush abilities won't be missed against a team like New England.

As expected, both Jared Odrick (fibula) and John Jerry (sick) are ruled out of Monday night's game. Not a big surprise there, as both sat out practice all week.

With Odrick being out, we should expect to see Paul Soliai continue to work as starting nose tackle with Randy Starks working at defensive end with Kendall Langford. John Jerry being out for the second consecutive game is another pretty big blow, considering Pat McQuistan wasn't very impressive starting at right guard last week.

From the Patriots' side of things, cornerback Terrence Wheatley (foot), runningback Fred Taylor (toe), and offensive lineman Nick Kaczur (back) are all listed as out.

Dolphins offense: 207.3 pass ypg (18th)
Patriots offense: 247.3 pass ypg (10th)
Dolphins defense: 193.3 pass ypg (9th)
Patriots defense: 260.3 pass ypg (25th)

Many expect fireworks to take place in the passing game Monday night. As long as the Patriots have Tom Brady, they are going to throw the football, and throw it well. With weapons like Randy Moss and Wes Welker in his arsenal to go along with two promising rookie tight ends, the Pats are virtually uncoverable.

Not exactly the team you want to see after getting torched by Mark Sanchez, Dustin Keller, Braylon Edwards, and the Jets a week ago. But nonetheless, a great opportunity to bounce back and prove that the huge strides we saw in the first two games have some legitimacy.

The Dolphins' offense meanwhile, and in particular Chad Henne, need to establish a little consistency after throwing all over one of the best pass defenses in football last Sunday night. I said earlier in the week that they should try and be more balanced, and not commit exclusively to the run, like we saw against the Vikings, or the pass, like we saw last week. Still though, with the way New England's secondary is playing, it's going to be awfully tempting to get pass happy again.

Patriots passing attack vs. Dolphins secondary
Usually when you go into this game you scheme around stopping Randy Moss and the long ball and Wes Welker in the short to intermediate passing game. Now though, throw in the Pats' leading receiver, tight end Aaron Hernandez, into the equation, and it's even more difficult to prepare for this offense. And that's not even mentioning the other rookie right end, Rob Gronkowski, who has a couple touchdowns of his own through three games.

Considering that the Dolphins have been abused heavily by opposing tight ends so far, what should they try to take away first and foremost? I don't think you can really commit to anything, because that would just open things up for Brady's other weapons.

There's always one simple key to slowing down this offense, though- consistent pressure. That's something the Dolphins completely forgot how to do against the Jets, after getting to Trent Edwards and Brett Favre in consecutive weeks.

Cameron Wake was man-handled by Damien Woody for the most part, Koa Misi was a complete non-factor, and some of the exotic blitzes Mike Nolan drew up were way too slow getting to Sanchez. If the Dolphins are going to continue to bring pressure, it better get there quick against Brady.

If he can sit in a clean pocket, and have time to scan the field against man-to-man coverage, it's game over. He's going to hit Moss on some deep shots, Welker multiple times underneath, and pick Miami's defense apart with Hernandez and Gronkowski.

One thing that will make things considerably easier regardless of how much pressure the Dolphins can get on Brady, is if Vontae Davis, who better cover Moss all night, can lockdown Randy Moss on the outside. Last week we saw Jason Allen matched up with Braylon Edwards, because the Dolphins like to keep their corners on the same side of the field so they don't have to flip technique.

That may work against some teams, but against Randy Moss, you better have your best man in coverage at all times. Davis has looked like a shutdown corner so far this season, but until he does it against elite receivers, we can't make that call. He's picked off Brady two times in two games. Will he make it three for three on Monday night?
Edge: Patriots

Dolphins passing attack vs. Patriots secondary
We finally saw last week just how talented of a player the Dolphins have in Brandon Marshall and were reminded of just how good Chad Henne can be. And that was against the Jets, who had the best pass defense in football last season. Yes, Revis was hurt, but they shutout the Pats in the second-half two weeks ago without him.

With the struggling Patriot secondary coming to town, you would hope Dan Henning would continue opening up the playbook even if they jump out to an early lead. When the Dolphins led early against the Bills and Vikings, the offense went in a shell. They didn't take shots down-field, and almost exclusively went to the run in Minnesota.
They stayed balanced in Buffalo, but outside of that one deep shot to Marshall, the routes were all in the 5-8 yard range.

When you have a weapon like Marshall who is such a big, athletic target down-field, you would be crazy not to utilize that. Once you hit him for a couple big gains, the defense is only going to get back on their heels, and things are going to open up for Davone Bess, Brian Hartline, and Anthony Fasano.

The Dolphins shouldn't worry too much about pressure either. The Pats have only registered one sack this season, courtesy of inside linebacker Jerod Mayo. It will be interesting to see if that enables Dan Henning to do away with some of the max protection, two tight end sets that he likes to run, and run a few more three receiver formations with Davone Bess working in the slot.

However they approach this defense, there really isn't much of an excuse for Chad Henne not having another big day considering how poorly the Pats' secondary and pass rush is playing right now.
Edge: Dolphins

 

It's that time of week again. Time to sit down with a blogger from the team the Dolphins are scheduled to face for a little Q&A exchange. I don't know about you, but to me, this is hands down becoming the best read of the week. Please welcome in Derek Hanson from Foxboro Blog, Bloguin's one stop for New England Patriots' coverage. Be sure to check out the questions I answered for Derek about the Dolphins right here.

Phins Phocus: How are you feeling about the Pats' defense right now? Will they turn it around, or do you see a mediocre defense separating them from the dominate Patriot teams of years past?

FB: I'm certainly not excited by what I've seen of the Patriots defense thus far, but I also don't think that it's been the disaster that most people are making it out to be. The bulk of the points that New England gave up against Cincinnati came after the Patriots were already up by 20. The D certainly wasn't great against the Jets, but I tend to pin that loss more on the offense who blew a halftime lead by getting shut out for the last two quarters. As for the 30 points they surrendered to Buffalo, seven came off a kick return, and other seven were set up by an offensive fumble that gave the Bills great field position. That leaves 16 points, one TD and three FG's, which isn't horrendous.

Don't get me wrong, the defense certainly needs work and is nowhere near the level that we saw during the Patriots big runs last decade. That being said, the bulk of our defensive players have played less than three seasons, and they're still learning to play together. I do expect things to improve as the season progresses. Right now, the Pats' D has some flaws, but pretty much every team in the league has something wrong with them. I don't think there's a clear-cut favorite for the Super Bowl at the moment. With some improvement, there's no reason this defense shouldn't be good enough to keep New England in contention.

Phins Phocus: If you were an opposing defensive coordinator, how exactly would you go about stopping Tom Brady and the Pats' offense?

FB: Tom Brady simply has so many weapons at his disposal, that I don't think that any team can shut them all down. I think there are two keys to stopping New England. For starters, if you can stop the run game, the Patriots have a tendency to abandon it and become very predictable and one-dimensional. Once you've been able to shut down the run, I'd say the next key is to make it difficult for Brady to hit Wes Welker. The Jets were able to turn Welker into a non-factor in the second half of their game, and, as a result, Brady was stuck either bombing to Moss (which has a high incompletion percentage) or throwing to receivers he's less comfortable with. That's how New England's powerful offense found themselves shut out in the second half.

Phins Phocus: How much longer do you anticipate the Super Bowl window being open for this team? How much longer will they remain elite, or have they already fallen from that pedestal?

FB: I actually don't see the Super Bowl window as something that is closing on this team. I think it's a window that's been shut since last season, is currently still shut, and is about to open up again. This Patriots team is young. Yes, Brady, Moss, and Welker are all getting up there in years, but they certainly aren't rapidly declining. Then you have a defense comprised largely of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd year players, who all look good but just need time to mature. Tack on two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks in 2011, and the Patriots are a team that could be really, really scary in a couple of years. 2011-14 has the potential for some nice Super Bowl runs with the way this team is currently set up.

Phins Phocus: With the Pats, Phins, and Jets all being tied at 2-1, how do you see this heated race eventually playing out?

FB: It's really anybody's game at this point, although I think New York and New England have a slight edge over Miami. Monday Night's game is absolutely critical. Whoever loses that game will have dropped two of two to their top division rivals. It would be particularly devastating for Miami, because you would've have blown both home games and I'm not sure you can recover from that. At least with a Pats loss, they were both on the road and there's reasonable hope for redeption at home. Still, whoever loses on Monday is going to be in a really bad spot.

I'm going to stick with the Patriots taking the division. In the end, they have the better quarterback, and the Jets just seem ripe for an implosion. Like I said though, it's anybody's game. The only team that would surprise me is Buffalo.

Phins Phocus: How do you see Monday night's game unfolding? Final Score?

FB: I'm very, very nervous about this game. No matter how good the Patriots are or how bad the Dolphins are, this annual game at Miami is usually a house of horrors for New England. One thing that I think does bode well for the Patriots is that everyone seems a little down on them. When that happens, they tend to respond by coming out and playing some good football.

I think it's going to be a fairly physical game. The Patriots will likely get their points and the big question will be how the defense plays. A key for the Patriots will be stopping the run. I think that the secondary will have their hands full with Brandon Marshall. If the Dolphins are also allowed to run all over the field, it's going to be a long night for the Patriots.

Another thing to watch is how New England plays during the second half. In 2009, the Patriots were 1-6 on the road if you discount the neutral site game in England against Tampa. In the majority of those games they held leads going into halftime before they stalled out and blew the game. Two weeks ago against the Jets it was the same old story. The Patriots are certainly going to have to reverse that trend if they want to walk out of Miami 3-1.

I think the Patriots will be able to contain the run and put enough pressure on Henne to force him into some mistakes. Brandon Marshall will get his catches, but in the end the New England offense will put up enough points to seal the deal.

Prediction: New England 31, Miami 27

It's been a couple weeks since we got a little film study in. I didn't intentionally skip a week, but last week's version was lost when the Bloguin network underwent a server change. Oh well, were back in action this week in preparation for what should be considered a must win for the Dolphins. I know that's an unfortunate situation this early in the season, especially after winning their first two games, but that's just the price you pay in a division as competitive as the AFC East.

Let's take a look back at the two games between the Dolphins and Pats last year. The Dolphins dropped the first one in New England but managed to knock off the Pats at home with Chad Henne having one of his best performances as a pro and a defense that bent but didn't break, forcing a turnover on downs and a Vontae Davis interception in the red zone.

Week 9 2009: New England 27 Miami 17

Week 13 2009: Miami 22 New England 21

The Dolphins may have sent a message to the special teams unit today by waiving Erik Walden, who missed a block on the Jets' blocked punt deep in Miami territory Sunday night, or they could have just been making room for an extra defensive end (Rob Rose, who was promoted from the practice squad) with news of Tony McDaniel's one-game suspension. Anyway you see it, the weekly roster churning continues.

Also making headlines today, was a little insight into the Jared Odrick and Channing Crowder situations. As expected, Odrick still didn't practice today, and is probably a long shot for Monday night's game. Crowder, on the other hand, was back practicing on a limited basis, and will reportedly be evaluated on how he responds to the workout. Hopefully he continues to progress, because the run defense could sure use his services right now.